Market Commentary: Fed Expected to Accelerate Pace of Rate Hikes, Reduce Balance Sheet
Corporate earnings comparisons are getting more difficult. Factset reports first quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 4.5%. Earnings growth will likely increase during the quarter as companies deliberately push earnings estimates lower so they can produce positive surprises. Wh …
Market Commentary: US Sees Robust Job Numbers; S&P 500 Closes Out Negative Quarter
The U.S. economy has continued to create jobs. The establishment report, which measures jobs at known entities, added 431,000 new jobs last month. Economists expected 478,000 new jobs. The previous two months were revised higher by nearly 100,000, making up for the slight miss. Unemployment …
Market Commentary: Fed Officials Indicate Faster Pace, Steeper Hikes for Interest Rate Increases
Initial jobless claims reached their lowest level since September 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.35 million and reached their lowest level since 1970. The labor force was half as large then as it is today. Concerns about inflation, excess demand, and uncertainty about Russia’s attack on …
Market Commentary: To Combat Inflation, Fed Plans 6 More Interest Rate Hikes, Surprising Investors
The Federal Reserve both met expectations and surprised investors at the same time last week. As expected, the Fed raised rates 0.25%, beginning to unwind the sharp rate reductions it implemented to protect the economy during the early stages of COVID-19. The surprise was the announced inte …
Market Commentary: Fed Poised to Raise Rates this Week, Could Signal Future Increases
Inflation continued to bound higher last month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.8% last month and is 7.9% higher than one year ago. The big culprits were food and energy. Food prices leapt 1% last month and gasoline prices increased 6.6% as part of an increase in overall energy pri …
Market Commentary: Risk of Expanded Russian Conflict Pushes Markets Lower; US Economy Adds 678,000 Jobs
Concerns the Russian invasion of Ukraine will draw more countries into the conflict raised risk and pushed global markets lower. Statements about nuclear forces going on alert and world leaders discussing a no-fly zone concerned investors.
Market Commentary: Equity Markets Experience Another Volatile Week; Fed Signals Interest Rate Hike in Early March
Equity markets wrapped up a volatile week with a late-Friday surge that pushed the S&P 500 to a 0.8% gain. Each day last week experienced a swing of at least 2.25%. Ongoing concerns about interest rates, inflation, valuations, and geopolitical challenges are contributing to swings in the market.
Trends to Watch Out for in Q1 2022
We’re in a pretty interesting juncture in the markets. As we kick off the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the omicron variant is spreading across the country.
Market Commentary: Housing, Equity Markets Decline with Fed Expected to Hike Interest Rates
Equity markets have given back some of last year’s gains. Higher interest rates appear to be the major cause. As the Federal Reserve prepares for its first meeting of the year, investors have raised the odds of four interest rate hikes to approximately 70% from less than 30% one month ago ( …
Market Commentary: U.S. Inflation Challenges Likely Linked to Robust Government Aid, Policy Changes
Inflation remains a challenge to the U.S. economy. CPI rose 0.5% in December and surged 7.1% during the last year. It wasn’t all food and energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes those more volatile elements, increased 0.5% as well. As the bright blue line in Figure 1 shows, inflation …
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2023 Market Outlook Report
Just because 2022 was a poor year for stocks and bonds doesn’t mean the same will be true for 2023. See why the Carson Research team believes there are reasons to be optimistic in 2023.
